We live in momentous times.
In a single week we’ve seen Barack Obama win the race to the White House and the Bank of England throw caution to the winds with an unprecedented 1.5 per cent cut in UK interest rates by its Monetary Policy Committee.
In a way the two events are linked.
Republican candidate John McCain had his nose in front until it was impossible for him to maintain any longer that the worst of the global banking crisis was over. It was at that point his Democrat rival began to pull ahead.
The Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King has likewise been forced to make public reassessments of the gravity of the credit crunch.
Now it is recession which threatens the UK and not inflation as he was continually warned by his own MPC member super-dove David Blanchflower and the Daily Express among others.
His conversion is welcome however late in coming. More interest rate cuts are in the pipeline and hopefully the Government will do the necessary arm-twisting to make certain that the high street banks pass on the benefit of lower rates to their customers.
Simon Hayes, UK economist of Barclays Capital, told clients after Thursday’s news that the cost of borrowing had been slashed to 3 per cent: “We now forecast half-percent cuts in each of December, January and February.
"Moreover, if there is not a discernible improvement in credit markets over the next few months we see Bank Rate being cut even lower: zero is the only effective lower bound.”
Sterling will be the barometer by which the UK’s economic climate will be judged in the months ahead. It is likely to weaken against the dollar and the euro as our interest rates fall.
But if the housing market and consumer spending are stimulated by cheaper borrowing rates, the economy should respond.
This should in turn put some backbone into the pound’s value.
There are a lot of “shoulds” in this analysis. But we are moving into unchartered waters.
ULTRA NEGATIVE MEDIA COVERAGE DOESN'T HELP
10.11.2008, 3:47pm
The British media causes panic and fear more than any other European country.
Whilst the USA and other European countries recognize and are fully aware there is a property and financial crisis, they are not always trumpetting catastrophe and disaster around every corner and blacker than black days to come for years ahead.
Other nations who know how important confidence, determination and courage are, say that although things are bad, they will not stay this way as so much is being done by so many to repair the damage.
We must be able to be positive otherwise the markets will crash even further as everyone hides terrifed in a corner not daring to put one foot in front of the other.
The BBC is so doom and gloom one begins to think they take a perverse pleasure in wallowing in it.
The media in Britian must be more positive as half the property panic is due to the sowing of the seeds of panic and fear by the press.
Posted by: Penny Report Comment
TREASON IS THE CRIME THAT COVERS SOME OF THE MORE SERIOUS ACTS OF DISLOYALTY TO ONE'S SOVEREIGN OR NATION.
10.11.2008, 2:10pm
Given what our legend in his own mind has just done... he should be arrested and brought to justice for crimes against the people.
The years ahead are the work of him and his kind... he has just sold us to the religion of peace for cash.
Posted by: Moronamid Report Comment
...TELL ME PEOPLE
10.11.2008, 12:58pm
...what is the idea of stock market? For me is just the way of few evil families making money anyway it goes! Money exchanges? Yes, another money maker for few. Do we needed it ...Ofcourse not! Shares are invented for greedy! Easy money and clean hands! No work involved. Not to mention oil market. Soon we'll go back to good old trading. No stocks or shares just buy what you can afford and drive away! Simple
Posted by: Slaven Report Comment
2009 = 1929
10.11.2008, 12:42pm
There is a worldwide DEPRESSION !
The British economy is being artificially proped up by printing Stirling until the General Election in May 2009....
Then the winners get to needlessly invade Iran in June.
Gosh, Its like walking in Justin Toper's shoes !
Posted by: JonO Report Comment
POPPYCOCK!
08.11.2008, 6:58pm
Unchartered waters my pink bottom Stephen.
"All that is past is prologue." Recognise that? It's from The Tempest.
Shakespeare was right in 1610 and he is right now.
Every financial crisis in history has been described as unprecedented in the middle of it. Only once has that been correct - in the 1930s during the Great Depression.
We are not heading for another Great Depression. Back then the response, especially from the Americans, was to raise the walls, run on the banks and for congress to pass protectionist legislation.
Now, the opposite is true. World governments and the IMF are making multilateral decisions. The US has a new president who is more interested in a truly global economic solution - and has a big enough mandate not to worry about being unpopular in the short-term.
The threat of stagflation has passed, interest rates are at a 50 year low, unemployment is - so far - relatively robust and the markets have simply priced in armageddon, which is what markets always do in a crash. That's why they trough prior to recessions - and then recover so quickly.
Wake up and smell the Lavazza. Capitalism is not dead, it's merely bruised. The end is not nigh, only the end of the era of total deregulation. And we're not in unchartered waters. We're in the same, choppy, waters we were in during the recessions of the 70s, 80s and 90s.
Posted by: Sar Report Comment
2009 IS COMING:
08.11.2008, 5:02pm
Unless the nation as a whole, including the Politicians resolve to bit the fiscal bullet, the prediction is a long and bitter recession.
From what has occurred to date, with political funk trying to soften the blow, It may well turn out to be the longest fiscal disaster ever to be recorded.
Regards to all,
GERONIMO
Posted by: cassandra Report Comment
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