If we abandon Ukraine to Russia Putin will roll his tanks across Europe, says PETER BONE
I WOKE up this morning at 5am to discover that an independent democratic European state had been invaded by a larger authoritarian power. My first thoughts and prayers were for the people of Ukraine with the unthinkable consequences that are about to befall them.
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Then I thought, “had I been transported back to the late 1930’s?” where smaller countries were first having territory annexed by a European authoritarian power, followed by full-scale invasion. At the time, other countries criticised what was happening but did not militarily intervene. There was even a security conference in Munich which led to nothing. Then of course, the superpower invaded a country protected by a defensive treaty and the whole of Europe was at war.
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Have we not seen exactly the same thing happening now? Russia first of all took over Crimea, then it placed troops in the Donbas region followed by a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Next on the list will probably be Moldova, where Russian troops are already stationed in Transnistria.
Once this invasion has completed, Russia will be bordering Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, all members of NATO.
Will the Russian president chance his arm by invading a region in one of those countries, which he will claim has close Russian links? If he does that, will NATO respond militarily? If they do, we are in a European war of catastrophic proportions.
Undoubtedly, the West failed with its diplomatic efforts and its threats of sanctions to deter Putin.
The decision early on, not to militarily intervene gave the Russians the green light. We had a security conference, in Munich of all places, which did not deter the dictator.
Had the western allies imposed a no-fly zone over Ukraine, that might have made a difference.
But the threat of sanctions and the failure to implement them, was no deterrent.
Russia is a bully and the only way to deal with a bully is to stand up to them. The West has palpably failed to do such a thing.
I just wonder, if President Biden had not been elected in 2020, would we be in this position? The President’s decision to abruptly pull out of Afghanistan no doubt led to Putin believing the resolve of the Americans was weak.
He gambled, and probably correctly, that all he would get from the Americans were words and sanctions but no military response. If Donald Trump had still been President, his unpredictability might well have deterred the Russians.
So, what can we do now to ensure Europe is not engulfed in war?
We must make sure that President Putin realises that any invasion of a NATO country, on whatever pretence, will receive an immediate and full military retaliation.
Saying this of course, will not be enough to deter the Russians.
NATO must heavily reinforce its military units on its Eastern flank.
This will mean more military expenditure in Europe, not only by the USA and the UK, who at the moment bear the brunt of NATO, but other countries such as Germany who have failed to live up to their responsibility.
Only if Putin thinks NATO will act, and he can see that the military hardware is in place, will he stop.
