A note from Piers Corbyn.
Not all forecasts are correct for any system but the right way to test them is to look at our actual forecasts (not misinterpretations *) over a period of time rather than make rude ill-founded remarks. I have found people ‘assessing’ what hey claimed were our WeatherAction forecasts when they were nothing of the sort.
Express readers and users of WeatherAction forecasts are consistently impressed by our success. For example we correctly forecast the summer floods from 6 months ahead correctly forecasting the 11 main flood periods and of these 10 hit England and one missed – hitting Scotland. So the score was 10/11. To those who seem intent on misrepresentation I ask what was your forecast?
[*for example look at the wind speeds we predicted as most likely not the levels at which we said there was a small chance (10%) of something happening – which is really saying it probably wont happen but it might and insurance companies want to know how big that ‘might’ is hence we give it.]. We also correctly predicted the two most extreme storm events this year – see below
Report on recent dramatic dangerous storms (eg Nov & early Dec)
Many have congratulated WeatherAction for correctly predicting – with ‘astounding accuracy’ from eleven months ahead - the dramatic dangerous storms which hit many parts of the British Isles and NorthWest Europe in the end October to early December period. All these storm periods were accompanied by major storms across the world and all driven by the same solar activity and sun-earth magnetic connections.
Piers Corbyn won £1000 from William Hill for wind speed bets in November.
The storms of 2007 are not over yet.
Two Comments from WeatherAction subscribers received recently:
“As I've said previously, your forecasts seem to be spot on, and the Met Office and others usually change their predications to match yours at a much later stage.” (Mike S)
“Thanks for the accurate forecast for Nov/Dec storms. I took great delight looking at the Met office web forecasts, no weather warnings until it was too late!! I believe my subscription is due at the end of the month, please send me the price for another year, many thanks,” (Mark S, farmer)
For the end October heavy rainstorm and windy period (espec weekend 27-28 Oct) we correctly warned of travel disruption - which occurred - floods, runway water at Heathrow, Environment agency Flood watches etc. We stated that this period would just be a ‘preliminary’ to more extreme events in November. The storm timing and track was excellent. Winds were in the 50-60mph range rather than 80-100mph and the reason for that led to another improvement in the Solar Weather Technique (SWT23A toSWT23B).
'Around 8th-13th November' period. (timing description as used in a letter to the Times 1st Nov)
The storm in this period - mainly on Nov 9th - excellently confirmed WeatherAction's forecast in all detail of timing, event sea-state, wind intensity, and storm centre track. As we warned sea defences were dangerously threatened due to a North sea storm surge. The Yarmouth defences came within eight inches of flooding and the Government was right to evacuate 2,000 people. In Holland ALL Flood defences were raised for the first time in 30years. Top wind gusts were over 70mph in many places and reached 93mph (149kph) on Fair Isle and 108mph (173kph) on North Rhona, an island off North Scotland (- a high rather non-standard location) confirming our forecast of topmost gusts in 90 to 110mph range). This was a serious extreme weather event. The most significant aspect was the correctly predicted North Sea storm surge -The most significant for 30 years. (Note to get this right requires a major storm with a specific track timed at full or new moon high tides in the mid Oct to mid March (eg) period. There are 10 such potential periods around the moons every year – or 300 in 30 years. This was the first WeatherAction forecast of such a North Sea surge situation. The odds against getting such a forecast right by luck are maybe 300/1 – certainly longer than 100/1 against.
Around 24th-28th November' period (timing as quoted in The Times and in the 45day ahead forecast).
This concerned a series Low pressures and related events - particularly two major predicted events:
(i) Firstly a 'Northerly' track active Low giving something of a North sea surge. This occurred in timing, event - both sea-state and winds - and track around 24th November.
(ii) Secondly a later more 'Southerly track' serious storm the centre of which would pass through England and the effects of which would include 'extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell'. (words from 11month ahead and subsequent forecasts). Some solar events appeared to have changed to make the event come later so we extended the time period, in the medium range update circulated, by about 4 days into the next period which was also due to include very unsettled conditions.
The extended period event on1st/2nd December well confirmed the general forecasted track. The Low centre track was excellently forecast although the main action was a bit further south than the core forecast track yet within normal uncertainties. The event excellently confirmed the very extreme sea-state we predicted from11 months ahead - The 55ft waves on the Irish coast appear to be the largest in modern records. According to Met Eireann and the Marine Institute - see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7120574.stm the previous highest recorded waves quoted are 40 foot in 2005.
General wind levels (and the tendency that standard meteorology would underestimate them) and the likely formation of tornadoes were also confirmed. The most damaging winds occurring in the English Channel and France rather than England. There was of course extensive damage in Ireland and Southern Britain and at least two tragic drownings in dangerous seas. It could have been worse. Some top gusts were: 73mph (117kph) Solent, 76mph (122kph) Alderney, 89mph (142kph) Guernsey.
The time delay also meant that although the sea state was very dangerous there were only neap (ie lowest high tide) tides. So the breaches of sea defences which would probably have followed if the event had been near full moon did not occur, and the warnings/watches of sea defences remained as that.
This was a very serious extreme weather event with seas whipped up to the topmost level in the Beaufort scale of wind and sea-state ie Hurricane force seas. The chance of getting this extreme event – a once in 20 years sea state in the right week is probably longer than 100/1 against.
The period around Dec1st /2nd (eg) also saw massive storms in Europe, Canada, USA & Australia:
Winter storm barrels into American Northeast after pounding the ...
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/03/america/NA-GEN-US-Winter-Storm.php
Winter storm grips region
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=25eda930-3fa6-48c9-a361-015a5f7fc507
Snow, Ice Storm Rips Across Northern US
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jv320qXrVAVFqDYU3nglqZySw6YgD8T9HKH00
Sydney storm from Sumatra
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22863860-5006009,00.html
The 5th-9th December storm period
was also very well forecast in timing, severity and general track. The main storm was in fact more southerly than expectations and on the more intense side of predictions with many gusts over 70mph and severe storm 11 and hurricane 12 taking place at sea. (fair odds against this success about maybe 50/1)
BETTING SKILL NOTE. Even if all the other weather periods in the November / early December WeatherAction forecast were inaccurate (which they were not) then if say £1 was placed in imaginary (or real) bets on each of the about 10 weather periods the winnings would still be £250 from £10 staked.
Cheers Piers Corbyn (piers@weatheraction.com)
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