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ARTICLE SUMMARY
New year big freeze is comingBRITAIN faces one of its bitterest winters for 100 years, with temperatures set to plummet to -17C (1.4F), forecasters warned last night. 
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All rights reserved. By viewing this site you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.
MET.......MONKEY.....
09.01.08, 2:54pm
Sir................I second that.....Met Monkey.....is a wonderful....website........with lots of good....forecasters.......such as the .....legendary......DAVE ALLEN.......Danielson....Breezy Brum......and the Boss....Thermo-man.......Chuckle.....nuff said......
• Posted by: BillFarkin • Report Comment
MET MONKEY
01.01.08, 9:59am
The home page hasn't been updated for a while because the main lot is on the forum - Met Monkey is mainly a weather discussion forum and it is a great. We all put in our own forecasts and discuss the odds and different runs on the GFS charts for example. There is a big topic going on about the brief cold snap this week - and it is all uncertain, most of us agree that it is very borderline and the most of the snow will be across Northern areas, but southern areas just could see something if we are lucky.. the lower levels of the atmosphere (850 hPa) are at borderline temperatures as I said before, and it depends on the timing of the precipitation.
• Posted by: Gideon • Report Comment
NEW YEAR BIG FREEZE IS COMING
31.12.07, 11:33pm
Good to see where not all as daft as the media think and don't believe this rubbish.
If you want a great weather website forget Met Monkey, try www.netweather.tv everything is there including a great forum with experts who REALLY know what they're talking about.
• Posted by: M4RK1988 • Report Comment
THIS ARTICLE WASN'T JUST ABOUT PIERS, BY THE WAY
31.12.07, 11:05pm
I find it strange that most of these comments are aimed at Piers, yet he was one of three different forecasters who were quoted in this article.
For a change, they all seemed to be in agreement on this occasion and it was Piers who was using the most cautious rhetoric.
Does than mean that all three of them are wrong? And what about the Highways Agency with their gritting vehicles? Are they fools for listening to these forecasters or are they just doing their job?
Quite frankly, If I'm involved in a mid-January motorway pile-up because the gritters have been made redundant then I'll rapidly lose all faith in the global warming theory.
• Posted by: IanShacklock • Report Comment
I TRIED MET MONKEY
31.12.07, 8:01pm
I did check out
http://www.Met-Monkey.co.uk
but the last update on the home page was for August.
Am I doing something wrong?
I don't want to have to log in to get a weather forecast, which is why I use
http://www.metcheck.com
Incidentally, METCHECK picked up the June floods that hit South Shropshire, 11 days BEFORE the "official" warnings appeared! That gave us time to (once again) get everything out of the cellar before the deluge hit South Shropshire and we got another 4 inches of rain in 3 hours....
• Posted by: NoisySiamese • Report Comment
THANK YOU PIERS FOR... ER.... NOT PROVING ANYTHING.
31.12.07, 3:46pm
I wandered back onto this article this afternoon to see if anyone had said anything else, and it looks like we've got something that could actually pass for spam, from Piers Corbyn himself!
I think the assumption you make, Sir, that we have the time and patience to read a message that long and disjointed, is absolutely outrageous. It just looks like a lot of pasted stuff that proved you might have predicted something right once before, but what does it have to do with a future weather forecast?
If proving your skill was that easy, I could just give up my current job and walk into, for the sake of the argument, a leading City bank, with a load of fabricated "quotes" and a few carefully-engineered statistics that indicate that I'm a good man for the job, and they'd take me on and I'd be loaded. But in the real world it is not that easy, and so reeling off a load of "past examples" that you are not a total clot, is not giving me any evidence whatsoever, as a reader, that your latest forecast is anything like what will actually happen.
If you're so unhappy with papers sensationalising your claims, stop being a rent-a-quote for the Express and do something to make you an accredited guy in your field.
Thank you.
• Posted by: JohnThom • Report Comment
NOT SO BAD
31.12.07, 3:40pm
I understand that sudden heavy snowfall can cause problems but those projected temperatures of -4,5, are not so bad. Here in Budapest it's been no more than -4 every day for weeks and I can't even remember what sunshine is like. It is horrible but you can get used to it.
• Posted by: endre • Report Comment
NEW YEAR BIG FREEZE IS COMING
31.12.07, 3:15pm
A note from Piers Corbyn.
Not all forecasts are correct for any system but the right way to test them is to look at our actual forecasts (not misinterpretations *) over a period of time rather than make rude ill-founded remarks. I have found people ‘assessing’ what hey claimed were our WeatherAction forecasts when they were nothing of the sort.
Express readers and users of WeatherAction forecasts are consistently impressed by our success. For example we correctly forecast the summer floods from 6 months ahead correctly forecasting the 11 main flood periods and of these 10 hit England and one missed – hitting Scotland. So the score was 10/11. To those who seem intent on misrepresentation I ask what was your forecast?
[*for example look at the wind speeds we predicted as most likely not the levels at which we said there was a small chance (10%) of something happening – which is really saying it probably wont happen but it might and insurance companies want to know how big that ‘might’ is hence we give it.]. We also correctly predicted the two most extreme storm events this year – see below
Report on recent dramatic dangerous storms (eg Nov & early Dec)
Many have congratulated WeatherAction for correctly predicting – with ‘astounding accuracy’ from eleven months ahead - the dramatic dangerous storms which hit many parts of the British Isles and NorthWest Europe in the end October to early December period. All these storm periods were accompanied by major storms across the world and all driven by the same solar activity and sun-earth magnetic connections.
Piers Corbyn won £1000 from William Hill for wind speed bets in November.
The storms of 2007 are not over yet.
Two Comments from WeatherAction subscribers received recently:
“As I've said previously, your forecasts seem to be spot on, and the Met Office and others usually change their predications to match yours at a much later stage.” (Mike S)
“Thanks for the accurate forecast for Nov/Dec storms. I took great delight looking at the Met office web forecasts, no weather warnings until it was too late!! I believe my subscription is due at the end of the month, please send me the price for another year, many thanks,” (Mark S, farmer)
For the end October heavy rainstorm and windy period (espec weekend 27-28 Oct) we correctly warned of travel disruption - which occurred - floods, runway water at Heathrow, Environment agency Flood watches etc. We stated that this period would just be a ‘preliminary’ to more extreme events in November. The storm timing and track was excellent. Winds were in the 50-60mph range rather than 80-100mph and the reason for that led to another improvement in the Solar Weather Technique (SWT23A toSWT23B).
'Around 8th-13th November' period. (timing description as used in a letter to the Times 1st Nov)
The storm in this period - mainly on Nov 9th - excellently confirmed WeatherAction's forecast in all detail of timing, event sea-state, wind intensity, and storm centre track. As we warned sea defences were dangerously threatened due to a North sea storm surge. The Yarmouth defences came within eight inches of flooding and the Government was right to evacuate 2,000 people. In Holland ALL Flood defences were raised for the first time in 30years. Top wind gusts were over 70mph in many places and reached 93mph (149kph) on Fair Isle and 108mph (173kph) on North Rhona, an island off North Scotland (- a high rather non-standard location) confirming our forecast of topmost gusts in 90 to 110mph range). This was a serious extreme weather event. The most significant aspect was the correctly predicted North Sea storm surge -The most significant for 30 years. (Note to get this right requires a major storm with a specific track timed at full or new moon high tides in the mid Oct to mid March (eg) period. There are 10 such potential periods around the moons every year – or 300 in 30 years. This was the first WeatherAction forecast of such a North Sea surge situation. The odds against getting such a forecast right by luck are maybe 300/1 – certainly longer than 100/1 against.
Around 24th-28th November' period (timing as quoted in The Times and in the 45day ahead forecast).
This concerned a series Low pressures and related events - particularly two major predicted events:
(i) Firstly a 'Northerly' track active Low giving something of a North sea surge. This occurred in timing, event - both sea-state and winds - and track around 24th November.
(ii) Secondly a later more 'Southerly track' serious storm the centre of which would pass through England and the effects of which would include 'extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell'. (words from 11month ahead and subsequent forecasts). Some solar events appeared to have changed to make the event come later so we extended the time period, in the medium range update circulated, by about 4 days into the next period which was also due to include very unsettled conditions.
The extended period event on1st/2nd December well confirmed the general forecasted track. The Low centre track was excellently forecast although the main action was a bit further south than the core forecast track yet within normal uncertainties. The event excellently confirmed the very extreme sea-state we predicted from11 months ahead - The 55ft waves on the Irish coast appear to be the largest in modern records. According to Met Eireann and the Marine Institute - see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7120574.stm the previous highest recorded waves quoted are 40 foot in 2005.
General wind levels (and the tendency that standard meteorology would underestimate them) and the likely formation of tornadoes were also confirmed. The most damaging winds occurring in the English Channel and France rather than England. There was of course extensive damage in Ireland and Southern Britain and at least two tragic drownings in dangerous seas. It could have been worse. Some top gusts were: 73mph (117kph) Solent, 76mph (122kph) Alderney, 89mph (142kph) Guernsey.
The time delay also meant that although the sea state was very dangerous there were only neap (ie lowest high tide) tides. So the breaches of sea defences which would probably have followed if the event had been near full moon did not occur, and the warnings/watches of sea defences remained as that.
This was a very serious extreme weather event with seas whipped up to the topmost level in the Beaufort scale of wind and sea-state ie Hurricane force seas. The chance of getting this extreme event – a once in 20 years sea state in the right week is probably longer than 100/1 against.
The period around Dec1st /2nd (eg) also saw massive storms in Europe, Canada, USA & Australia:
http://www.dhnet.be/infos/faits-divers/article/191896/les-tempetes-soufflent-la-belgique.html
Winter storm barrels into American Northeast after pounding the ...
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/03/america/NA-GEN-US-Winter-Storm.php
Winter storm grips region
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=25eda930-3fa6-48c9-a361-015a5f7fc507
Snow, Ice Storm Rips Across Northern US
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jv320qXrVAVFqDYU3nglqZySw6YgD8T9HKH00
Sydney storm from Sumatra
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22863860-5006009,00.html
The 5th-9th December storm period
was also very well forecast in timing, severity and general track. The main storm was in fact more southerly than expectations and on the more intense side of predictions with many gusts over 70mph and severe storm 11 and hurricane 12 taking place at sea. (fair odds against this success about maybe 50/1)
BETTING SKILL NOTE. Even if all the other weather periods in the November / early December WeatherAction forecast were inaccurate (which they were not) then if say £1 was placed in imaginary (or real) bets on each of the about 10 weather periods the winnings would still be £250 from £10 staked.
Cheers Piers Corbyn (piers@weatheraction.com)
• Posted by: pierscorbyn • Report Comment
REALITY CHECK
31.12.07, 1:55pm
Let's have a look how Piers Corbyn and The Express have done with their previous headlines of doom.
October 17 2007: GET READY FOR 3 KILLER STORMS: BRITAIN is set to be battered by three massive storms during a spell of "ferocious" weather, a forecaster warned last night.
If he is right the weather conditions could equal or surpass the violence of the Great Storm of 1987 which took place exactly 20 years ago yesterday.
The nightmare prediction comes from long-range forecaster Piers Corbyn who correctly warned of the summer floods and last year's New Year hurricane.
Mr Corbyn says that hurricane force winds - gusting up to 130mph as weather fronts gain in intensity - could wreak havoc across the country, causing structural damage to properties and endangering lives.
The relentless cycle of ferocious weather, he says, will begin gathering force at the end of next week for what forecasters are calling a "warm-up period". It will be followed by another, more intense storm during the second week of November with stronger wind speeds.
But the most severe weather event will take place during the last week of November, causing chaos. Forecasters are already predicting that it could be as severe as the famous tempest of 1703 - one of the most extreme weather events ever witnessed in Britain which wiped out 80 per cent of the Royal Navy's fleet.
Reality: The autumn was notable for its lack of storms. None of the three "stormy" periods saw any notably strong winds except the occasional gale in the Hebrides, hardly unusual in autumn! The last week of November, "the most severe weather event" was calm and anticyclonic with hardly a breath of wind over much of the UK.
December 14 2007: THE CHRISTMAS KILLER GALE: SEVERE storms could put lives at risk and ruin Christmas and New Year for millions of Britons.
Winds reaching 95mph, heavy rain, tornadoes and blizzards are set to batter the nation from December 23 onwards, an independent forecaster has warned.
He says a deep low-pressure system will sweep across western and southern Britain - strong enough to disrupt transport, bring down power lines, uproot trees and create a storm surge along the Bristol Channel and south coast.
It means families aiming to be together for the festive season may have their travel plans ruined, and the traditional Christmas dinner could be scrapped if homes are left without power.
Reality: Christmas Day was wet and breezy but hardly very windy for December. No transport disruption or power failures due to weather, no winds anywhere like 95mph, and the south coast was about the least windy spot.
And last winter...
November 11 2006: ARCTIC BLASTS ON THE WAY
Reality: 2006/07 was record-breakingly mild in the UK.
I could go on but frankly I'd lose the will to live...
• Posted by: rjk48 • Report Comment
PEIRS USES THE SUN
31.12.07, 1:22pm
Peirs using sunspot activity to forecast and this is very very bad because clearly it does not work.
Gideon was simply backing up with what he was saying with evidence, I understand what he was saying because I know a fair amount about the weather, Isothermal melt drag, 500hPa temperatures, dew points etc...
Although he does have a point, Piers doesnt back up his forecasts although you cant really expect him to through a newspaper. But he is always wrong.
• Posted by: DanielAKAWMD • Report Comment
REPLY
31.12.07, 1:05pm
It is no good making a big forecast or warning if you can't back it up with evidence. That is what I am pointing out. The technical terms I was suggesting was really to those involved with the Express Warning. I don't trust any forecast that hasn't given any evidence. Even the BBC use ECM and UKMO charts and the Met Office provide links on their site. Without some backup, I cannot take this seriously.... By the way, global warming doesn't mean it can't be cold or snowy, it is a general pattern of a natural warming trend.
• Posted by: Gideon • Report Comment
ERRR...
31.12.07, 12:52pm
This is to "Gideon", could you please not bamboozle us simple folk with your technical terms?!
You are making even less sense than the TV forecasts these days, with your 850hpa - what exactly is this? And I don't know any German so your link is useless to me, I don't know if that applies to other people.
I'm not really a "weather nerd" so I am not that bothered about how it is forecast (though i am sure some people find it interesting), but it does make me laugh when the Express gives front-page credence to the weather, time and again - how many people actually care? Really? There's nothing we can do about it, and because their source is Piers Corbyn, it's not even factually accurate anyway. Whoever it was who pointed out that there was no Christmas storm clearly has good memory, but it is all too true. What happened to the repeat-1987 disaster thing as well?
As for bitterest winter for a 100 years, i will believe that when I see it. Which I won't because Global Warming has put paid to that.
• Posted by: JohnThom • Report Comment
BIG FREEZE
31.12.07, 12:37pm
Big Dave ........You should use capital letters and avoid cliches..........
Maybe I pressed the 'send' button too many times (as it was slow to respond) but my spelling was totally accurate .
Anyway,if it gets really cold your pots and kettles should keep you warm !
• Posted by: 1400poppy • Report Comment
WHERE DOES THE DATA COME FROM?
31.12.07, 12:27pm
Just thought I would make another reply requesting the source of Piers data.. or is it just a "Feeling" he has inside.. I don't know about you but when I make my forecasts, I use weather modes:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.png
This is the 850 hPa Temperature chart. For snow to fall, we need it at -5c or below... ideally near -7c to support snowfall to lower levels.
As you can see there, there is a borderline near the Midlands....so it is very unstable and you cannot know if snow will fall in the South or not. We would need some amount of isothermal drag if the temperatures remain borderline.
Assuming that the GFS will pick up on a slightly lower layer atmospheric value near -5c, the potential for some sleet or MAYBE light snow in the south is possibe.... let's say 30% or so....
Further North, we are well into the -8c 850 hPa air and near -32c at 500 hPa with a 528 DAM. So northern areas are almost guarenteed to see some amount of snowfall, to lower levels as well.
This is what I like to hear... Piers providing some backup to his forecasts, on a seperate link or something like that.... not just say we will be in a big freeze without evidence.. and I cannot find ANY evidence to suggest this January will be one of the coldest in 100 years... I think it will be near average month temperature wise with the odd cold snap.
• Posted by: Gideon • Report Comment
THIS IS RIDICULOUS
31.12.07, 12:21pm
Why do the express always allow Piers to place his stupid forecasts up. Yes its going to be cold with some snow but its going to be no where near that severity.
Piers was the only who forecasted a severe storm over Christmas, did that come NO it didnt. He is ridiculous..
Met-check certainly isnt good, they base there forecasts on raw GFS so they change with the GFS changes.
www.met-monkey.co.uk is a better website with some wonderful members in the forum including myself,
Take no notice of Piers forecasts, they hardly ever come true and we will not see a severe January.
• Posted by: DanielAKAWMD • Report Comment