Reform UK will be more popular than the Tories in the Red Wall 'by the summer'

The crisis in collapsing support for the Tories means they are on the verge of being passed by Reform UK in six English regions and potentially wiped off the electoral map.

Express.co.uk has been given the breakdown of a mega poll commissioned by long-term Tory supporter Lady McAlpine which reveals that Reform is now within striking distance of passing the Conservatives in the entire Red Wall.

The polling taken by Whitestone between January 23 and February 7 got the opinions of 13,534 voters. It was taken before Lee Anderson defected to Reform giving them a further boost in the polls.

According to the regional breakdowns, Reform are now within a 4% swing of passing the Tories into second place in the so-called Red Wall regions of the North West, North East, West Midlands, East Midlands, East of England and Yorkshire and Humber.

In a particular blow to Rishi Sunak, the North East shows that Reform was already on level pegging with the Tories on 17% each. The region which had been the jewel in the crown for the Conservatives sweeping Labour of the way in its heartlands holding the Teesside mayoralty and 11 of the 29 parliamentary seats but now seems set to return to Sir Keir Starmer's party.

Reform UK leader Richard Tice believes that the defection of Mr Anderson and the way the Ashfield MP was treated by Mr Sunak will mean many more Tories in those Red Wall seats in the North and Midlands will switch to his party.

Mr Anderson was suspended by the Conservatives over comments about Labour London Mayor Sadiq Khan which the Prime Minister claimed were "Islamophobic".

Mr Tice predicted that Reform will "overhaul the Tories in [Red Wall regions] by the summer."

The boast will be a further blow to Mr Sunak's authority as he prepares to face Tory MPs tomorrow amid plots to replace him with Penny Mordaunt or a different leader who could stave off catastrophic defeat.

The Prime Minister's critics point out that the poll ratings are getting worse rather than better and there is fury over the failure of the Budget to provide an election platform and the handling of the Anderson suspension.

Added to that there are real concerns that Nigel Farage will stand for Parliament providing Reform with a national focal point which could boost their support even further.

One Midlands MP told Express.co.uk: "If Nigel stands I'm finished and most of my colleagues are.

"As it is even having a paper candidate from Reform standing against me takes away about 3,000 votes and that will probably be enough to let Labour back in."

The MP was one of a number to darkly warn that patience is running out with the Prime Minister.

They said: "I am afraid if there is a plan it is definitely not working and the mood is changing among colleagues about whether things could be any worse with a new leader. A lot of us think it could only be an improvement."

The breakdown shows that in the North East Labour leads easily with 51% while the Tories and Reform are both on 17%.

In the East Midlands Labour has 42%, the Tories 26% and Reform 18%.

East of England Labour 39%, Conservatives 23% and Reform 17%.

North West Labour 51%, Conservatives 20% and Reform 12%.

West Midlands Labour 45%, Conservatives 23% and Reform 16%.

Yorkshire and the Humber Labour 45%, Conservatives 21% and Reform 17%.

Even in their traditional strong areas - known as the Blue Wall - the Tories are a distant second with just 24% in the South East and South West to Labour's 36% in the South East and 33% in the South West.