Terror level: Chances of UK attack lowered to ‘substantial’ - different measures explained
THE UK terror level has been reduced to its middle ranking after analysis from security and intelligence experts. But, why was it raised in the first instance? What are the different threat levels the UK can activate?
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On Wednesday, Home Secretary Priti Patel announced that the UK's terror threat level had been lowered from severe to substantial, meaning a terror attack on British soil is considered "likely". The level was raised last year after two terror related attacks, with both taking place several months ago. So, why has the decision now been taken to make a change?
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In a statement to Parliament, Ms Patel revealed that the level was now being reduced one rung lower after being raised to its second highest reading.
A severe terror level, which signifies that an attack is "highly likely", was introduced following two terror attacks in 2021.
During October, Conservative MP Sir David Amess was stabbed to death in Essex.
Then, one month later, a bomb was set off outside Liverpool Women's Hospital.
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However, Ms Patel has warned that a lower threat level should not be taken lightly, insisting that "it must never make us complacent".
She said: "The attacks in October and November 2021 reflect the complex, volatile and unpredictable nature of the terrorist threat in the UK."
The 49-year-old added that the decision was taken independently of ministers by security and intelligence experts from the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC).
Terror levels in the UK are set by the JTAC - which is based at MI5's headquarters in London.
Overall, it’s composed of representatives from 16 Government departments and agencies.
Counter-terrorism experts from the police, Government and security agencies all have a say in the decision making process.
According to their assessments the current nature and scale of the threat, despite the two attacks, was consistent with the level seen prior to them.
The Home Secretary said: "JTAC keep the threat level under constant review based on the very latest intelligence and analysis of internal and external factors which drive the threat.”
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What are the different terror threat levels?
In the UK there are five levels of threat. These are as follows:
- Low - an attack is highly unlikely
- Moderate - an attack is possible but not likely
- Substantial - an attack is likely
- Severe - an attack is highly likely
- Critical - an attack is highly likely in the near future
Threat levels do not have an expiry date and can change at any time as different information becomes available.
What factors determine the UK’s terror level?
The JTAC considers the following with regards to what level the UK’s terror level is set at:
- The level and nature of current terrorist activity, in comparison with events in other countries and previous attacks.
- Available knowledge with regards to capabilities of the terrorists in question and the attack method they may employ.
- The ultimate aims of the terrorists and the means they could use to achieve them.
- How close an attack might be to occurring.
