Wednesday July 15 2009 byNikki Barr for express.co.ukNEARLY 50,000 people in Britain could die of swine flu before a vaccine becomes available, it emerged today.
Dr Margaret Chan, head of the World Health Organisation, today rubbished claims by the Government that a reliable flu vaccine would be ready within weeks.
Instead she insisted it could be up to three months after a vaccine has been developed before it is ready for widespread public use.
It means - on current Government projections of 100,000 new cases-a-day by the end of August - there could be 45,500 deaths if clinical trials on a vaccine are not completed until the end of November.
Dr Chan said: “There’s no vaccine. One should be available in August. But having a vaccine available is not the same as having a vaccine that has been proven safe.
“Clinical trial data will not be available for another two to three months.”
Her comments came as Chief Medical Officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, refused to rule out a death rate of one in 200 - the figure calculated by experts at Imperial College, London yesterday.
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The Government predicts 100,000 new cases-a-day by the end of August
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Responding to Dr Chan’s comments, Sir Liam said today: “As far as the UK is concerned, we are still expecting to get 60 million doses of vaccine by the end of the calendar year and for the first supplies to arrive in the early autumn.
“There is some uncertainty because vaccine manufacture involves a complex process of testing biological products, so it can sometimes go wrong and cause delays.
“We then have to license it properly and that may take a little time, but we still will be one of the first countries in the world to get vaccine.”
Sir Liam said there is still a lot of uncertainty about how the disease will develop.
He added: “Later this week, I will be putting out some planning assumptions to the NHS.They need to know broadly what numbers of patients might be hospitalised, what sort of pressure will be put on the NHS.
“Statistical modelling is very valuable, but we do need to treat it with caution early on.”
Dr Chan’s comments also cast doubt on Health Secretary Andy Burnham’s claim that the first stocks of vaccine could be expected to arrive next month.
Mr Burnham has said Britain is at the “front of the queue” for supplies of the vaccine and would start to receive the first in August.
He said: “We have made very good plans in this country for this eventuality, for being in this situation, and Britain is at the front of the queue in the world for vaccine.
“We could not be in a better position. So as soon as stocks are made, the very first vaccines will come to this country. We expect to get the first next month.”
According to Sir Liam, between 30 to 35 per cent of people could contract the virus this winter.
Previous estimates have suggested that up to half the population could become infected.
He said: “The virus will not just be here for one winter - previous pandemics have been around three, four, five years.”
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Sir Liam Donaldson, Margaret Chan and Andy Burnham
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Experts now fear a repeat of the complications caused during treatment of the 1970s outbreak of flu, which led to some patients developing Guillain-Barré syndrome - a rare neurological disorder that causes paralysis.
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The number of UK deaths linked to the virus now stands at 17. There have been nearly 10,000 confirmed UK cases but hundreds of thousands more are thought to have the virus.
NHS Direct has dealt with more than 198,000 calls about swine flu since April 27.
Of these calls, 56 per cent of people were given advice on looking after themselves at home, 10 per cent were given health information and 32 per cent were referred to their GP for further assessment.
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IF THEY DONT DIE OF SWINE FLU..
15.07.09, 7:22pm
They could die of underlying health conditions
or could be knocked down by a bus !
Are we human or are we robot ?
I might die tonight in my bed !
We will all die
one day
S o how do we protect ourselves
W hen we cannot see it
I ts in the air and on the floor
N ever know who it will take
E ventually it will diminish
F orget about it
L ook to your lifes
U ps and downs....just live it.
• Posted by: marigold • Report Comment
GO ON WITH THE SCAREMONGERING
15.07.09, 6:04pm
This headline makes me so angry, people will be scared out of their wits with headlines like this. Can we please get this into perspective. Many thousands of people die of flu every winter and usually because of underlying health problems or old age pensioners who are living on the breadllne. The deaths from swine flu have been very small compared to the alleged victims of the disease. It is totally irresponsible for the press to scream death and gloom like this.
• Posted by: Maggie59 • Report Comment
DAMNED IF THEY DO AND DAMNED IF THEY DON'T
15.07.09, 5:49pm
I don't think this pandemic is being hyped, What we are being told are real possibilities, most of the statements are in fact responses to questions asking what could happen or what is the worst scenario. If the powers that be are taking this flu seriously then that is as it should be . Most of the people complaining would be at the front of the queue if one of their friends or family was to die.
• Posted by: HappyBrit • Report Comment
DISEASES
15.07.09, 4:54pm
Can one catch mad cow disease from bull-s***t?
• Posted by: AvrilK • Report Comment
I AGREE WITH FREDDIE....
15.07.09, 4:40pm
...this is just scaremongring. Anyone who gets a cold will now think it is swine flu, Doctors and Hopitals will be inundated and be unable to cope with real emergencies
• Posted by: Disgruntled • Report Comment
50,000 'DEAD IN MONTHS'
15.07.09, 3:51pm
Or not as the case may be.
!The end of the world is coming and only Gordon Brown can save you! - in which case we are all doomed.
While it makes sense to prepare for an epidemic stories such as these are purely hypothetical scaremongering.
There are many of us still alive who survived Asian 'flu which, by all accounts, was more vrulent and more deadly.
Inducing panic in a nation largely conditioned to believe that a pill or vaccine exists to cure anytihng and everything is irresponsible.
• Posted by: freddie • Report Comment
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