Killer pig flu fear in Britain
BRITAIN was caught up in a terrifying health scare last night as experts warned of an outbreak of swine flu that could kill millions.
Fears over the disease – which has already killed up to 86 people – were highlighted by two suspected cases admitted to a Scottish hospital.
The victims were taken in for tests as a precaution after arriving home from Mexico, where the outbreak began last week.
Health officials fear that the travellers unwittingly carried the previously unknown strain into Britain.
Last night at least seven more countries were investigating suspected cases and others were examining tourists who have displayed symptoms.
Altogether, nearly 1,300 people are thought to have been affected by the virus, which has symptoms similar to common flu.
Professor Nigel Dimmock of Warwick University said the outbreak could kill 120 million people – two per cent of the world’s population – if it covered the globe.
That would be far worse than the impact of the Spanish flu pandemic that killed 50 million people in 1918 and which was a forerunner of the current flu strain, known as A/H1N1.
“It’s poised on a knife edge,” said Prof Dimmock. “It could burn itself out or it could get very nasty indeed – only time will tell.
“It’s a matter of how it spreads. It’s worrying because it appears to have infected a thousand or so people. But if it is a very good spreader it will travel around the world and we will all be in trouble.”
“So far it has killed two per cent of those infected. In the worst case scenario it could kill two per cent of the world’s population.”
It could burn itself out or it could get very nasty indeed – only time will tell
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Prof Dimmock added: “It’s already spread from Mexico to three states in the USA and our authorities are gearing into action.
"They are looking to see what is happening and looking at the possibility of getting a vaccine in place as fast as possible.
“At the moment it is unlikely that any of the current vaccines will be able to protect us.”
Dr Alan Hay, director of the World Influenza Centre, said: “It looks pretty ominous. It’s difficult to look on the bright side at the moment.
“What’s most worrying is that this new virus is affecting young, healthy adults – the same group affected by the pandemic flu virus of 1918.
"Those usually vulnerable to flu, the elderly and the very young, were at less risk then and, it appears, now.
“The unusual feature about 1918 was that healthy young adults that suffered most – and I think everybody understands the implications.”
He described the situation in Mexico as “totally different” from the intermittent cases of H5N1 bird flu among people, because it appeared to be spreading so fast.
Dr Hay’s laboratory in north London expects to receive samples from the new cases next week from the US Centers for Disease Control. His team can then help to advise on the best possible vaccine.
Scientists around the world are already working on a fast diagnostic test so that labs likely to see new cases can quickly confirm whether or not people have the virus.
Health Secretary Alan Johnson told the BBC: “We have a whole range of measures in place.
“We have a stockpile of the drugs and an agreement with a manufacturer so as soon as the scientists can find a vaccine, they can produce it.”
The British alert began on Saturday when a BA cabin steward fell ill while flying back from Mexico City.
After tests at Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow, Middlesex, yesterday, he was given the all-clear.
Scotland’s health secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the two patients there had not been in an area of Mexico affected by the recent outbreaks.
“They have displayed mild flu-like symptoms and their current condition is not causing concern,” she added.
At Heathrow, passengers arriving from Mexico City said they were held on the plane for 45 minutes as officials carried out health checks.
When they finally left the British Airways 747, some were still wearing the face masks given to them in Mexico.
Saleeem Choudhary from London, with a mask still draped around his neck, said: “I was getting married and just afterwards the president announced the outbreak. My wife is still there. I’m really worried about her.”
English teacher Alistair Dixon, 24, who has been in Mexico since September last year, said: “At the airport in Mexico City we had to fill out a form saying we felt OK.
“When we got to Heathrow health inspectors went through the plane asking if anyone had any of symptoms. A few people put their hands up but they were happy with the situation and let us get off.
“I was coming home anyway, but among my friends there was a little bit of panic. All the schools were closed, including mine. I bought a mask but a lot of people were given them on public transport.”
As well as in Mexico and Britain, doctors in France, Spain, New Zealand, the United States, Canada and Israel were treating suspected cases last night.
The United States, which last night declared a public health emergency, recorded at least 20 victims.
In New York, where eight students are infected, officials were monitoring a further 100 possible victims.
Ten students in New Zealand have the flu, with six cases confirmed in Canada.
The World Health Organisation called experts to an emergency meeting in Geneva yesterday.
Margaret Chan, its director-general, described the developments as “a public health emergency of international concern”.
