Keir Starmer's migration plan could set the stage for a big Nigel Farage comeback
Labour is fighting to show it can do a better job than the Tories on migration, but this could give Nigel Farage his best opportunity yet for a comeback.
As defection bombshells go, Natalie Elphicke has proven to be Labour's most explosive yet. Her move has sparked a bigger backlash than anything provoked by Christian Wakeford or Dan Poulter, leaving many Tories and Labourites reeling.
Sir Keir Starmer will be quietly satisfied by the response as it helps him achieve the two things he would most want from accepting Ms Elphicke.
Firstly, to unsettle the Tories by showing they cannot be sure who is most likely to cross the floor next given that even a staunch right-winger feels her interests are best served by his party.
Secondly, to encourage the British people to trust Labour to get a grip on migration in the belief many will feel - as Ms Elphicke did in her statement - that they are the best alternative after 14 years of Tory failure "to keep our borders safe and secure".
Immigration and asylum is the highest priority issue for 2019 Tory voters, a group which Sir Keir needs to woo after their decisive role in bringing down the Red Wall to give Boris Johnson a hefty majority.
Recent polling by Lord Ashcroft found that voters trusted Labour more on migration than the Tories by a margin of 34 percent to 20 percent. This may be driven more by the public's disappointment with the Tory approach rather than enthusiasm for Sir Keir's plan, but it shows the headway he is making on an issue Labour has often struggled to be trusted with.
That is why Sir Keir has not let concerns from the Labour Left about Ms Elphicke put him off from seeing her in Dover today and talking further about Labour's plans to tackle illegal immigration.
The Tories have been scathing about his pitch, with James Cleverly tearing into Sir Keir for allowing asylum seekers to make "unlimited" claims and planning to "make the UK the asylum capital of the world".
Rishi Sunak and his team will keep pushing this argument with vigour until the election, but it will not be strong enough by itself to stop Sir Keir from sweeping into power.
At that point, the pressure will be on the Labour leader to translate his tough talk into meaningful results. It is safe to say one man will be watching what happens more intensely than most: Nigel Farage.
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Mr Farage cut his teeth battling Tony Blair in his pomp, so knows only too well Labour's history with open borders. The prospect of Sir Keir struggling even more than the Tories to get a grip on the small boat crisis could be what helps him make up his mind and stand for Parliament again.
The only question then would be whether he stands for a seat this year before the next election or waits for a by-election afterwards when any political honeymoon enjoyed by Sir Keir would be well and truly over.
Either way, Sir Keir may have unwittingly set the stage for Mr Brexit's biggest comeback yet. If the Tories' migration woes aren't enough to propel Nigel Farage into Parliament, further disappointment from Labour could be what voters need to install Nigel Farage in Parliament as their watchdog.
In the wake of Natalie Elphicke's defection, Labour was deluged with questions such as whether they would welcome Mr Farage next. That may have been a joke, but Sir Keir won't be laughing to have him terrorising his government from the green benches.
