"Paul Pogba is out for Manchester United and, while it looks like David Silva will be fit for City, they have a worry over their captain Vincent Kompany,” Lawrenson told BBC Sport, after predicting a 2-1 United win.
"That doubt over Kompany is part of the reason I am predicting City's first defeat of the season.
"I just think United have hit a run of form, and their win at Arsenal last week was very comfortable and impressive.
"If Kompany is missing, that will give United more opportunities from set-pieces and, although City will create plenty of chances themselves, David de Gea is obviously in such fine form in goal for Jose Mourinho's side.
GETTY
Mark Lawrenson has tipped Manchester United to beat Manchester City 2-1 on Sunday
Tony Gale: Man United need to play 'cautiously' against Man City
Invalid email
We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our Privacy Policy
GETTY
Mark Lawrenson thinks Jose Mourinho will get the better of Pep Guardiola at Old Trafford this Sunday
"The key will be what Mourinho tries tactically. You know he will have a plan, and he will have had a team in mind for the past three or four matches too.
"So Pogba's suspension is a blow for him as far as that is concerned, but I just have a feeling United will go and beat City, in not a particularly good game.
"I think the atmosphere at Old Trafford will be ramped up for this one.
"Yes, there have been plenty of times recently when United have been below City in the table when they have played them.
"But City have done so well this season, and that is something United are not really used to. That will add an edge to things."