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Erik ten Hag likely faces the Man Utd sack. (Image: Getty)
Manchester United are almost guaranteed to miss out on Champions League qualification via a top-four Premier League finish this season, intensifying the scrutiny on Erik ten Hag's future. However, it's a miracle the Red Devils are battling for European football altogether after an expected points table exposed just how bad their campaign has been.
United are at risk of suffering their worst-ever Premier League season, having already tasted defeat a joint-record 12 times in 32 games.
Across those 32 outings, Ten Hag's side have scored just 47 goals while conceding 48, resulting in a humiliating -1 goal difference with six games remaining.
United's worst-ever points tally was 58 in the 2021/22 season when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was sacked, and Ralf Rangnick oversaw a disastrous interim spell in charge.
While Ten Hag will hope his side can pick up at least nine points from their final six games, United are staring a record-low finish in the face.
That record currently belongs to David Moyes, who slumped to seventh in 2013/14, starting the club's decline after Sir Alex Ferguson retired.
The Old Trafford giants are currently seventh, trailing sixth-place Newcastle United on goal difference, fifth-place Tottenham Hotspur by 10 points and fourth-place Aston Villa by 16.
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United would drop to eighth if Chelsea stay within three points and win their game in hand. Only the top six are currently set to qualify for Europe.
If Ten Hag lifts the club's 13th FA Cup on May 25, United will earn Europa League qualification as a bonus to a second piece of silverware in as many years.
If Manchester City repeat last season's win at Wembley, fifth and sixth would enter Europe's second-tier competition, with seventh qualifying for the Europa Conference League.
However, expected points suggest United should be closer to the relegation battle than fighting for European qualification.
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United's expected points are 37.48, 12.52 below their actual tally. Only Wolves, Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United have accumulated fewer expected points, which would leave Ten Hag's side 16th.
Only Aston Villa have overperformed their expected points more than the Red Devils, earning 66 points rather than 52.52.
Given United's lack of goals and the shots they've conceded this season, it comes as no surprise that the data has failed to improve Ten Hag's standing.
Add the Premier League to the Dutchman's woeful campaigns in the Carabao Cup and Champions League, and there can't be many complaints if INEOS opt for a fresh start even if United earn FA Cup glory.
